There will probably be no understatement to say that the economy of Assam is still in a moribund State, and that there is seldom any sign visible of it turning vibrant or resilient in the foreseeable future with its fast-growing expenditures on wrestling with the insurgency and the post-flood scenarios in particular. Under these compelling circumstances, had the agriculture sector, the key revenue-tax earning source of the State, fared as well as a few years before, it would have been a little but rewarding. But ironically, this sector is seemingly turning out to be unpredictable. Whether it is for lack of sound irrigation mechanism, elusive monsoon or flash floods whatsoever, is an altogether different matter.
This year, for example, the far-below the expectation agricultural output can without hesitation be attributed to the erratic rain and the near drought-like situation developing in the five districts of the State. But what about its performance the previous year? It was not too amusing with rain being normal in most parts of it.
The tea industry in the State that has over the decades bolstered its economy substantially, besides providing employment to a fairly good number of people in the State, to cite an example, is currently passing through a bad patch. The situation turned worse when its production dropped 15 per cent during the first quarter of 2009. Resultantly, its exports too, fell to 50.26 million kg in the same period from 63.70 million kg a year ago.
Shortfall in tea output and deterioration in its quality is a phenomenon that has been a core concern for the State's tea industry for quite a long time now. The long persistence of tea bushes over larger uneconomic and unproductive areas, say for over 50 years, if not less, lack of proper planning and initiative in bringing about a transformation in the existing technique of plantation and replantation are largely responsible for this problem. At a time when the new players, namely Kenya and Sri Lanka, are gradually making their presence felt in the international market with their offer of good quality tea at affordable or reasonable prices, what Assam urgently needs is outstrip them with high quality export brand it has to develop, so that it can regain its waning stranglehold over it. Indeed, it is amusing that this problem is now being addressed through replantation with the recently-raised Special Purpose Tea Fund (SPTE).
With all these ills of the State keeping its economy from healthy and strong over the decades, its accelerated growth is possible if the people of Assam are provided with a break to do regular and large volume border trade without interruption with the Asian countries nearby. For this to happen, there is the need for an all-weather route, not like the road at Nathu La pass which remains closed for a better part of a year due to rough weather. There was, for example, no transaction through this border road in the months of May and June this year due to landslide.
Indeed, a mere opening of a route for border trade will not serve any purpose unless officially-notified exchangeable items are modern and of day-to-day use. If the India -China border trade via Nathu La pass is today flat it is largely because of the items, only 29 good to be exported from the Indian side and a meagre 15 items from the Chinese traders, having been obsolete and of no commercial value. Which is exactly why traders from both sides have been insisting on the revision of these commercial items. Therefore, if an alternative trade route is identified in the near future across Assam-South-East Asian nations border, the issue of exchangeable items should be taken into account at any cost.
A sustainable economic development of Assam and the other north-eastern States of the country could be an easy job if they had the privilege of conducting trade with Asian countries and China through the Stilwell road because the cities of these nations including Kunming, capital of China's Yunan province, and Bangkok, to name a few, are much closer to Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in particular than they are to mainland India. Frankly, the 1726-km long road at Ledo connects Assam to Kunming after touching almost all the important Southeast Asian metros. The opening up of free and special trade zones between South Asia, Assam and other NE States as well as Asian countries that could be facilitated by the reopening of the Stilwell road will serve to connect the NE region with the ever-expanding global trade regime for markets and profits. Notably, the Look East Police, was formulated only to facilityate providing opportunities for it.
Even though economically underdeveloped, the entire region is resource-rich. There are many exportable items available in plenty here. Think of Assam, it has huge deposits of crude oil and natural gas. It accounts for 50 per cent of the tea produced in the country. It also has good quality Eri and Muga. But all it needs urgently is an opportunity for a good access to and trade engagements with all these countries, which was all in the Stilwell route.
But, after a little over a decade of anxious waiting, it was of late informed that the plan of its reopening has been put on shelve following objections from Myanmar. This has expectantly triggered resentment among sections of people in Assam. The Centre has naturally drawn flak from the AASU on the issue.
However, amidst this depressing event, one good news is that Bangladesh's Sheikh Hasina government known to be pro-Indian, has of late expressed its willingness to trade with the North East. The news report that has been the headline stories in most leading dailies in the region says that the country may offer India the facility to use its southeastern Chittangong Port to transport goods from the land locked North East. This was recently divulged by the Bangladesh Commerce Minister Faruk Khan while talking to the newsmen at Dhaka after participating in a function to herald the launch of his country's brick export to Tripura at Akhaura border check-post complex.
Another amusing information is that along with the south-eastern Chittagong seaports, south-western Mongla seaport could also be expected to be offered for use by the neighbouring countries to help boost regional trade in line with the ruling Awami League's election manifesto, as said by the minister. If they are really put to use, the people of Assam and the rest of the region can find and receive the supply of the essential food items such as sugar, potato, dal, onion etc, in their retail markets at reasonable prices which are at present selling at most open markets of Guwahati and many other cities and towns in the State and beyond at alarmingly higher prices. Indeed, it can materiatise once mainland India agrees to use these ports to supply these goods to the region. Should it consent to the use of them Assam can gain economically by transporting its export items to Bangladesh. The State is much closer to it than Assam is to the other Asian countries such as China and Bangkok. The all-important is the upgradation of the ports.
Bangladesh will also be equally gainer from trade with the North East. This perception is further confirmed when Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty earlier said that the country could earn revenue between $ 1.5 billion and $ 2 billion by providing the region Chittagong Port for regional use.
Undoubtedly, it is a golden opportunity for Assam in particular, if it comes its way, to its rapid economic growth. Therefore, under no circumstances can it be allowed to go unutilised. For the much-needed border trade to materialise, there is the need for a bilateral agreement between India and Bangladesh on the use of the seaports all the year and trade. Assam should now excrt pressure on the Centre to take up the issue with Bangladesh to reach a broad consensus at the earliest.
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